t(y)ܸL(fng)UA(y)ع
t(y)UָҞ鱣Ļt(y)t(y)U(jng)kC(gu)P(gun)Ҏ(gu)λ͂˻It(y)UČ헻yjbysСĻt(y)ܸL(fng)UA(y)عՓģgӭx
ժҪ“ն֧֧ƽ⣬нY(ji)”ǬF(xin)A҇t(y)֧ԭtF(xin)A҇t(y)ˮƽ^MÈN}һֱt(y)Լt(y)C(gu)t(y)Ժ߹ͬP(gun)עԒ}ڴ^ʹt(y)܉Ӱȫƽ(wn)\t(y)C(gu)Ҳ(yng)һĸMʩĶʹt(y)õϕrҲͬr(yng)֧ɱcͬrt(y)ԺgʹõMаl(f)չҲȡһĴʩ،t(y)ܸĬF(xin)͡
P(gun)I~t(y) A(y)ع ܸL(fng)U
F(xin)AΌʩt(y)C(gu)B(ti)ʩ֮һt(y)ܸڸNԭʹt(y)ML^죬ʹܸL(fng)UԼYԴF(xin)ʧԭǶct(y)Ժz鲻ˎMõͬr߀t(y)v|(zh)һȱʹMF(xin)[1]ԭڶct(y)ԺʩA(y)ܿt(y)ܸ}һҪ
1ӏMC(gu)ԼܸL(fng)UA(y)ؙC
1.1C(gu)O(sh)úܵķ
ɲȡt(y)ܸL(fng)UA(y)عίTʽӏL(fng)UĿƣO(sh)ԺLԼܿ(yng)t(y)(j)ct(y)Ժ\IrǰĶȡһL(fng)Uܿط[2]ͬr_L(fng)UĿ(bio)t(y)Ժ\rԼt(y)(w)ˮƽMЧO(jin);⣬߀Чu\Ih(hun)(ji)ԼL(fng)UܸF(xin)MЧĹܿ;ƶ(yng)L(fng)U(yng)ʩʹܸL(fng)Uˮƽ@Ľ͡
1.2ܸL(fng)UA(y)ԼͨMз
L(fng)UA(y)عίTmrekt(y)hҪӑՓRt(y)(w)|(zh)}Լt(y)ָ(bio)rCόHF(xin)Aεt(y)L(fng)UrMЅRF(xin)At(y)(w)дڵ[MбeĶƶA(y)ʩ_hȫԺMͨʹȫTÑ(yng)(zhn)䣬L(fng)UMЧԼҎ(gu)ʹ֧܉t(y)|(zh)[3]
2ܸL(fng)Uԭķ
2.1`Ҏ(gu)Mõķ
ڶct(y)Ժһ㶼ڳˎ͙zδЌYˎԼz顢؏(f)M]ƵIJvӛt(y)(ni)ļst(y)Ę(bio)(zhn)kȶ`Ҏ(gu)О飬ͬrҲǾܸMҪă(ni)cĿdzˎԼz
2.2~Mõķ
F(xin)AεĶct(y)ԺУt(y)UĿҲu֮NصƼs(do)t(y)MòձĬF(xin)˾y(tng)IMó(bio)֮߀FˎƷԼ֧IJĵđ(yng)ϼӏʹt(y)ɱԼ~MЧؽ[4]
F(xin)Aεt(y)Y(ji)wϵУNʽքe鶨~Y(ji)㡢ĿY(ji)ԼβNMʽУt(y)ܸͻĆ}Ƕ~(bio)F(xin)漰Ľ~^漰t(y)ԺҲ^Ԍ˸y
2.3ˎ(bio)F(xin)ķ
t(y)߾P(gun)Ҏ(gu)ڻ⼲Ļ_ˎô30졣F(xin)At(y)Ժt(y)\ߵIJv]Mȫӛ;T\^࣬(do)]kˎƷ_ˎMнy(tng)Ӌ;t(y)(w)(w)ˆTt(y)ҲǺ˽;t(y)漰Ⱥˮƽһʹ߳F(xin)_ˎ`Ҏ(gu)F(xin)ڻסԺgʹoˎƷ`t(y)Ҏ(gu)[5]
2.4δЧʩ֮ǰͬƶ
t(y)ƶP(gun)Ҏ(gu)fڻߑ(yng)Ը߲ԸˎƷMÕr횫@ûҌٵͬ躞ӆ֪ͬδMкЙ(qun)֪Mõ֧Mоܽ^˷NF(xin)t(y)ԺҲаl(f)
3ܸL(fng)UMЧA(y)ķ
3.1ܸL(fng)Uķ
t(y)(w)ˆTþܸL(fng)UP(gun)Ӗ(xn)Ķʹ䌦ܸL(fng)UԼԴص˽ϵy(tng)ČW(xu)(x)v|(zh)RˎίzMԼT\زȣcͬr߀(yng)ČW(xu)(x)A͇֙(qun)؟(z)ηct(y)pP(gun)ă(ni)ʹt(y)(w)ˆTľܸL(fng)URԼ؟(z)εõОĻ(zhn)tܸL(fng)UF(xin)ijF(xin)
3.2ܸL(fng)U|(zh)صķ
؟(z)ƶȡt(y)ԺԔƶt(y)Чtʩؓ؟(z)ƶʹ䌦t(y)ָ(bio)MҕˎƷռƽסԺԼνy(tng)IMϼӏO(jin)ĸԴ϶t(y)ԺIJMʹ^{(dio)ƶȰl(f)]һă(yu)
ץסct(y)Ժ߀茦ҪA(y)ĿӏP(gun)עʩЧ|(zh)ƴʩF(xin)^ίĬF(xin)(do)¾ܸL(fng)Uİl(f)_ʹt(y)Ժt(y)|(zh)õߵĿcͬr߀茦O(jin)гF(xin)Ć}MЧĿY(ji)ʩʾƶ_ʾȫԺЧ
֑(yng)þW(wng)j(lu)(yu)ڌMвԃr^ԃrĕr^Lڴ^֑(yng)ӋCW(wng)j(lu)܉һ̶Ʋ鷿ƶȣpٲ鷿ĕrcͬrڌߵMԼ֪Čϸӵķһ̶Ͻ˾ܸL(fng)UijF(xin)
t(y)ԺҎ(gu)ƶҪMЧĹڹУҪտҵÿ¶ڵĽy(tng)ӋԼ̎ȫԺt(y)(sh)(j)ʹ{(dio)عϸ(j)ɿt(y)Ժ߀ÿy(tng)ӋRҸָ(bio)Пo(bio)ĬF(xin)ψԺt(y)C(gu)(j)t(y)Ժÿָ(bio)rC
4t(y)ܸL(fng)UA(y)ʩ
4.1ӏӖ(xn)
F(xin)AΣl(xing)t(y)δy(tng)IڱUĹƶҲͬMt(y)ƶȵĸĸǽQ@һ}Ŀɿt(y)ĵČ`УߵӖ(xn)ĻA(ch)ͬrҲ܉_ʹt(y)(w)ˆTܸL(fng)URЧڼӏӖ(xn)ĭh(hun)(ji)ҪL(fng)UĹĿ(bio)M_ЧMҼsP(gun)ߞǰᣬߌߵķ(w)|(zh)
4.2ӏL(fng)U
t(y)Ժƶȵ\ҪЧO(jin)t(y)Ժt(y)(w)ˮƽԼ|(zh)ڰl(f)F(xin)ܸL(fng)U[rrָMКw{Y(ji)_ʹt(y)(w)ˆTL(fng)URߵĿģt(y)Ժt(y)ОMЧҎ(gu)ܸL(fng)UF(xin)ijF(xin)Ķʹt(y)|(zh)õЧ
4.3ӏ|(zh)ƶ
t(y)Ժ؟(z)Ǟ黼ṩt(y)(w)t(y)MMЧĿƣt(y)(w)ʹt(y)Ժ͑(yng)ԓl(f)ұO(jin)ʹt(y)|(zh)߀茦|(zh)ƭh(hun)ӏҕȣί(yng)ԛQŽ^(chung)R·ʹߵƽסԺ씵(sh)Ԝpʹt(y)ԺYԴĺ_t(y)Ժw(jng)IˮƽõߵĿ
5Y(ji)Z
F(xin)AΣ҇t(y)ƶѽ(jng)ȫČʩڴ^У߀һIJ@Ҫt(y)Ժӏ(ni)ƶȣMP(gun)ˆTMt(y)ߵӖ(xn)W(xu)(x)ʹt(y)ƶ܉ˎӏĽt(y)Ժ`Ҏ(gu)F(xin)cgӏͨ@ûߵcΣʹt(y)ƶȵõõČʩ
īI
[1] ^ͦn۵.܊t(y)Ժطt(y)ʹñO(jin)ָ(bio)о[J].Ї(sh)t(y)W(xu)201106(12).
[2] ʢƼӸ.t(y)֧ԺͱӰطDDԴBt(y)[J].I(y)c201419(2).
[3] £ȫ.Փt(y)֧еijZF(xin)DDƶȿɳm(x)ҕ[J].F(xin)(jng)̽ӑ2014(1).
[4] Sɝ.(gu)t(y)Ժ(ni)t(y)ģ͵Č`о[J].Їl(wi)(jng)2014(7).
[5] κ.ct(y)C(gu)t(y)ʹc[J].Їl(wi)(jng)201029(11).
t(y)ܸL(fng)UA(y)عP(gun)£
CopulaՓĹL(fng)UV12-02
I(y)(ni)عYL(fng)Uѿо02-21
ՓI(y)(w)L(fng)U:L(fng)URec03-06
P(gun)ܛĿL(fng)U11-20
ģɫՓS(zi)L(fng)U12-06
\I֠l(f)չģʽ11-16
ģɫՓS(zi)L(fng)UV12-06
I(y)(ni)cL(fng)U03-01
- P(gun)]