t(y)W(xu)ԺՓc(sh)y(tng)ӋӴν̌W(xu)Č`cJ(rn)Փ
ժҪ ᘌt(y)W(xu)ԺУҎ(gu)ģU(ku)W(xu)A(ch)֪R͌W(xu)(x)RČHr̽ӑ˸Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋӴν̌W(xu)ıҪt(y)W(xu)ԺУՓc(sh)y(tng)Ӌn̷ӽ̌W(xu)ģʽ,Y(ji)ڸcy(tng)Ӌ̌W(xu)ĸìF(xin)Ϣg(sh)M(jn)зӴν̌W(xu)Č`(jng)
P(gun)I~ ʩ; |(zh); Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ; Ӵν̌W(xu)
2500ǰҴӰѽ(ni)ݷ֞СZ¡ČW(xu)ĿԵОɲͬӴεķ(gu)ɵeǷՓӴϵĵʩ̷ȻͬČW(xu)cͬôڽ̌W(xu)о͑(yng)òͬĽ҂ķӴν̌W(xu)˼룬Դڿӵʩ
Sĸ룬ƽľӢM(jn)D(zhun)׃ߵԺУҎ(gu)ģȵt(y)ԺУУW(xu)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)A(ch)͌W(xu)(x)RW(xu)䌣I(y)c(sh)y(tng)Ӌ֪RҪͬW(xu)(x)Ŀ(bio)͑B(ti)ȲMͬ@ʹôW(xu)ԓn ̵M(jn)һķֻ;ͬrڲͬW(xu)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)A(ch)͌(sh)W(xu)dȤۺҲMͬ(sh)W(xu)W(xu)(x)ҕ̶ȺͶкܴeLڵĽ̌W(xu)`҂̵wný̌W(xu)rg(ni)Mܵ؝MӴΌW(xu)W(xu)(x)ҪMI(y)m(x)ňW(xu)(x)ǰ£̶ȵ{(dio)ӌW(xu)ČW(xu)(x)eOзӴν̌W(xu)ߔ(sh)W(xu)̌W(xu)|(zh)[12]
1 Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋӴν̌W(xu)оı
1995ҽίо21o(j)ǔ(sh)W(xu)I(y)(sh)W(xu)n̽̌W(xu)(ni)cnwϵĸԁڔ(sh)W(xu)ڴW(xu)Б(yng)еã(ni)(sh)W(xu)uJ(rn)R҇ߵԺУҎ(gu)ģˮƽI(y)O(sh)^(q)YԴ(yu)Ӷȥh(yun)S҇ߵȽڅݵIJӿ@Щൽ21o(j)@Ӵν̌W(xu)ȻǴW(xu)(sh)W(xu)̌W(xu)Ҏ(gu)@Ҳ҂M(jn)дW(xu)(sh)W(xu)Ӵν̌W(xu)оrһl(f)cУڸՓc(sh)y(tng)ӋĽ̌W(xu)`Ӵν̌W(xu)ԭеĎY͌W(xu)ˮƽėl£ͨ^Ӵν̌W(xu)֝MI(y)ˮƽͬӴΌW(xu)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)|(zh)Ҫȵھ?q)Wĝܣ(do)W(xu)l(f)]䃞(yu)ʹÿW(xu)ܫ@ĸʽy(tng)Ӌ֪Rͬr܉F(xin)W(xu)УĽܺͷ(w)_(d)̕˵ĺCy(tng)һ[3]
2 Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋӴν̌W(xu)п]Ć}
Уһt(y)W(xu)ԺУڵĸʽy(tng)Ӌ̌W(xu)ȡһСRߡĽ̌W(xu)y(tng)һ̌W(xu)V̌W(xu)ʩӋ̌W(xu)Ҫδᘌ(sh)W(xu)A(ch)IJͬȡͬ@ɻA(ch)õČW(xu)ԡA(ch)ČW(xu)ԡn̽Y(ji)δ_(d)Ľ̌W(xu)Ч
Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋЄeW(xu)ƣՓԺ͑(yng)Զ(qing)@͛Q˽̎ڽ̌W(xu)еąc͌W(xu)W(xu)(x)ز١ný̌W(xu)һҪԌW(xu)wԌW(xu)ģһҪl(f)]̎(do)eOM(do)W(xu)M(jn)W(xu)õ،W(xu)(x)
ߵȽдӻ|(zh)v(yng)ԓǂԻġ|(zh)c֮һҪȫwW(xu)ھÿW(xu)ĝl(f)]ÿW(xu)ĂLȫwW(xu)|(zh)[4]ڔU(ku)|(zh)½څݣʹУУW(xu)zͥW(xu)Уh(hun)صӰˮƽӴβҲ@ЌӴӴν̌W(xu)tJ(rn)W(xu)Ăwڽ̌W(xu)^ᘌͬӴΌW(xu)IJͬͬĔ(sh)W(xu)A(ch)͌W(xu)(x)ԼͬI(y)O(sh)ӋͬӴεĽ̌W(xu)Ŀ(bio)(j)ͬĽ̌W(xu)(ni)ݣ\òͬĽ̌W(xu)ͽ̌W(xu)ֶĶʹW(xu)ԼԭлA(ch)M(jn)к،W(xu)(x)ڻA(ch)֪R͑(yng)õְl(f)չȺ_(d)̌W(xu)VҪ[5]
3 Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋӴν̌W(xu)ģʽČʩ
3.1 Ӵ΄
3.1.1 I(y)ͬM(jn)Є (j)I(y)ʽy(tng)Ӌ֪RIJͬҪòͬĽ̌W(xu)V_ͬeW(xu)յ֪RcĿǰ҂挦t(y)W(xu)̌I(y)_O(sh)Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ̲IJͬ(j)W(xu)ġʽy(tng)Ӌ̡̳ڽ̌W(xu)^"(qing)Փӌm(dng)(yng)"Ľ̌W(xu)ָ(do)˼룬B(yng)W(xu)SC(j)˼S߽y(tng)ӋB(yng)QһЩ漰֪Rt(y)W(xu)SC(j)ģʹûA(ch);ˎW(xu)c\g(sh)I(y)_O(sh)Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ̲IJõڶ܊t(y)W(xu)ġt(y)ˎ(sh)y(tng)Ӌ̌W(xu)Փӌ(qing){(dio)(yng)áĽ̌W(xu)ָ(do)˼ԓI(y)Ľ̌W(xu)мӏ(qing)˽y(tng)Ӌ֪RČW(xu)(x)ڽy(tng)Ӌvͨ^̌W(xu)ʹW(xu)^(qing)SC(j)(sh)(j)͑(yng)ýy(tng)Ӌܛ;挦Rt(y)W(xu)A(y)t(y)W(xu)t(y)W(xu)zt(y)W(xu)Ӱԭt(y)W(xu)t(y)W(xu)ȌI(y)҂_O(sh)܊t(y)W(xu)y(tng)ӋW(xu)̲Уy(tng)ӋW(xu)̌W(xu)^Џ(qing){(dio)y(tng)ӋġmԡҪW(xu)܊l(wi)y(tng)ӋW(xu)P(gun)(ni)t(y)W(xu)y(tng)ӋW(xu)еҪ~_^(q)Y;挦I(y)_O(sh)Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋȤζՓxnּt(y)W(xu)˽ՓA(ch)֪RԼy(tng)Ӌm(x)n̴ûA(ch)
3.1.2 (j)W(xu)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)A(ch)M(jn)Є ڸՓc(sh)y(tng)ӋČW(xu)(x)cߵȔ(sh)W(xu)֪Rճ̶@P(gun)ϵ҂ڽ̌W(xu)^и(j)ߵȔ(sh)W(xu)ijɿ̶ȌͬһI(y)W(xu)֞A,B,CӴĿǰͬһI(y)n̰rҔ(sh)Լ̎˔(sh)ȗl҂ֻҪ̎ͬһν̌W(xu)вȡ(yng)ĸNʩn(ni)ݵ½Mnʽ϶¹
AӴΣW(xu)W(xu)(x)ڊ^ϲg(sh)W(xu)(sh)W(xu)A(ch)̺ܸ̾ۄXڄԌW(xu)(qing)Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋһTҪW(xu)nҼs(qing)ɿ(yu)
BӴΣW(xu)^(sh)W(xu)o^ϲgϲg俴һTҪҌW(xu)ֻҪ˵ńӌW(xu)(x)(sh)W(xu)A(ch)֪Rɿе
CӴΣW(xu)ͨF(xin)ϲg(sh)W(xu)Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋW(xu)(x)IJ(sh)W(xu)A(ch)֪R߉˼S^W(xu)(x)oXW(xu)(x)ɿ
3.2 Ӵν̌W(xu)
3.2.1 ̌W(xu)^ (j)̌W(xu)ӴƶЌеĽ̌W(xu)V(yn)ս̌W(xu)Vƶ̌W(xu)Ӌxý̲ġʩӴο(j)Ӵν̌W(xu)VU(ku)̌W(xu)(ni)ݣ߽̌W(xu)|(zh)ͬrʽy(tng)ӋṉMͬĕrgn@ʹn̎܉nrM(jn)д̌W(xu)гF(xin)Ć}ԱγõL(fng)(x)T
ߌW(xu)ČW(xu)(x)dȤڽ̌W(xu)(ni)Ҫֱ^ӣMĽBČHͷ'H(yng)
AӴΣsռ?c)˔?sh)15%(j)ӴΌW(xu)cɱƽ̌W(xu)ĻA(ch)ijЩ(sh)W(xu)(ni)ʹW(xu)ܸոcy(tng)ӋՓ֪RB(yng)(sh)˼S߉(j)֪ͬRcH}(do)W(xu)˼_(d)֪R(yng)õչ
BӴΣsռ?c)˔?sh)75%ᘌԓW(xu)̎cný̌W(xu)|(zh)W(xu)ιn̘(bio)(zhn)Ҫյ֪R
CӴΣsռ?c)˔?sh)10%(jng)oϽ̌W(xu)΄(w)ČW(xu)ný̌W(xu)I(y)҂o(do)̎y(tng)һM(jn)(x)}vuȡnɡW(wng)ϴY(ji)ϵķrQW(xu)ڌW(xu)(x)ϵy
ÿnI(y)W(xu)ɣ_(d)얹̺I(y)(ni)ݣһǻA(ch)(CӴ)Ҫnj⡢\;ǾC(BӴ)A(ch);CI(y);(AӴ)ҪCԾ(x)͌H(yng)Æ}ĽQ
3.2.2 ʽ ڌW(xu)֞3ͬӴ_(d)̶ھ(yu)еĄ҂ԓn̵ijɿ(gu)M(jn)иĸоɿռ70%30%ƽrɿƽrɿɽ̎(j)I(y)ɡnûش}r
3.3 ìF(xin)Ϣg(sh)Ӵν̌W(xu)
SF(xin)Ϣg(sh)İl(f)չW(wng)j(lu)ѳɞF(xin)̌W(xu)һNֶΡnr(sh)ܶW(xu)Mnc̎挦潻ϣnc̎ĻԵõW(xu)(x)ϵĎ҂挦Ӵν̌W(xu)M(jn)o
3.3.1 _O(sh)I(y)վ cW(xu)pĘõ̎cW(xu)M(jn)Мͨ҂2002У@W(wng)_O(sh)˔(sh)W(xu)̌W(xu)W(wng)վՓc(sh)y(tng)Ӌn̵DƬҕlYW(xu)W(xu)(x)I(y)֪Rͽģṩƽ_\еn̾ςFTPԼW(wng)վĽ̌W(xu)^(q)W(xu)W(xu)(x)ԽW(xu)W(xu)(x)ķώrՌW(xu)ČW(xu)(x)rͬrI(y)ܛMatlab7.0Matlab2007Lingo8.0Lindo6.0SPSS13.0, ȫM̌W(xu)ҪЧ@W(xu)ͨ^W(wng)վ˽ԓTn̵P(gun)rn̎rn̘(bio)(zhn)̌W(xu)ʩӋͬrP(gun)ʽy(tng)Ӌ(yng)÷ľW(wng)朽W(xu)W(xu)(x)ԓTn̴
3.3.2 ԇ} 鿼W(xu)ԓn̵ČW(xu)(x)r⡢đ(yng)ó̶_(d)Kոcy(tng)ӋP(gun)֪RĿģ҂|(zh)^ߵԇ}ͨ^Ľ̌W(xu)`{(dio)ѽ(jng)܉M̿xĿԇģʽԇ}еԇ}(sh)(nW(xu)r50W(xu)rԇ}캬1500})}Ͷ(xxД})ԇ}o܇@֪Rcչ_yϵ(sh)0.10.9֞9ȼᘌͬӴεČW(xu)TM(jn)пԇ}}Ɍؓ(f)؟(z);So(h)ԇ}O(sh)ñCܿ^ȫؿW(xu)TČW(xu)(x)ЧÿοԇԇM(jn)yŶȵȷͨ^οԇɿY(ji)n̿ԇЧŶ^
3.3.3 O(sh)W(wng)j(lu)n ˸õ؎W(xu)W(xu)(x)҂2008꽨O(sh)Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋW(wng)j(lu)nҪɴKnúͽ̌W(xu)Mnаýwnӽ̰W(wng)j(lu)̲ҕl;̌W(xu)MаW(wng)I(y)̎W(xu)ͨ^нMώĵM(jn)(x)ͨ^W(wng)j(lu)n̿AW(xu)W(xu)øBW(xu)ջA(ch)֪Rnϲܼr֪RCW(xu)ٴΌW(xu)(x)ջ(ni)
4 Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋӴν̌W(xu)ur
ͨ^5Ľ̌W(xu)`"ԌW(xu)w̎(do)֪R(yng)ÞĿ"Ľ̌W(xu)˼УڱՓc(sh)y(tng)ӋnʩзӴν̌W(xu)ѽ(jng)յ^õЧڷӴν̌W(xu)(do)̎|(zh)Ҳõߣͬһ̌W(xu)η3ӴΣͬӴΌW(xu)ˮƽ^@̎v(zhn)ҪᘌθӴƶnă(ni)`׃Ľ̌W(xu)ʽM(jn)֪Rv;ͨ^Ӵν̌W(xu)wČW(xu)ڽ̎ąf(xi)c£W(xu)ČW(xu)(x)õ_l(f)ͬӴΌW(xu)@ȡ֪R͑(yng)֪Rõ@(sh)˼S߉ƌ(do)õl(f)չ3УM113(337)cȫW(xu)(sh)W(xu)ģِ@ȫһȪ13Ȫ12;ؑcһȪ47Ȫ16헵ă(yu)ɿλؑcиУǰõȫMίؑcнίؑcِ^(q)͌W(xu)УI(lng)(do)ĸ߶ȿ϶
҂J(rn)ͨ^Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌn̷Ӵν̌W(xu)M(jn)ڌW(xu)Իİl(f)չһNֵƏVĽ̌W(xu)ģʽҲһNm(yng)ĸcM(jn)e҂ӏ(qing)W(xu)(sh)W(xu)nȺwO(sh)Ҏ(gu)˷eO̽Ŭȫ߸ʽy(tng)ӋԼW(xu)(sh)W(xu)Ľ̌W(xu)|(zh)ṩ˿ƌW(xu)(j)춨ˈԌĻA(ch)
īI(xin)
1 ߵȌW(xu)УƔ(sh)W(xu)nָ(do)ίT(ƽM).P(gun)ڹƔ(sh)W(xu)ϵn̽̌W(xu)ĸĽh(sh)W(xu)c̲о.ߵȽ1995.
2 裬.ӴB(yng):c`.|о,2004,5:4850.
3 ˹,_t.УĻ|(zh)M(jn)ģʽ˼c`.У̽,2004,3:7880.
4 .У(sh)W(xu)Ӵν̌W(xu)оc`.H,2005,3:315318.
5 Ƽ.cy(tng)ӋӴν̌W(xu)Č`cJ(rn)R. http://jpkc.njust.edu.cn/ gltj/files
t(y)W(xu)ԺՓc(sh)y(tng)ӋӴν̌W(xu)Č`cJ(rn)ՓġP(gun)£
2.ܛ_l(f)c`n̽̌W(xu)(ni)čW(xu)Փ