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  • t(y)W(xu)ԺՓc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)Č`cJ(rn)Փ

    rg2020-08-05 11:29:00 t(y)ˎW(xu) ҪͶ

    t(y)W(xu)ԺՓc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)Č`cJ(rn)Փ

    ժҪ ᘌt(y)W(xu)ԺУҎ(gu)ģU(ku)W(xu)A(ch)֪R͌W(xu)(x)RČHr̽ӑ˸Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)ıҪt(y)W(xu)ԺУՓc(sh)y(tng)Ӌn̷֌ӽ̌W(xu)ģʽ,Y(ji)ڸcy(tng)Ӌ̌W(xu)ĸìF(xin)Ϣg(sh)M(jn)з֌Ӵν̌W(xu)Č`(jng)

    t(y)W(xu)ԺУՓc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)Č`cJ(rn)Փ

    P(gun)I~ ʩ; |(zh); Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ; ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)

    2500ǰҴӰѽ(ni)ݷ֞СZ¡ČW(xu)ĿԵОɲͬӴεķ(gu)ɵ؄eǷՓӴϵĵʩ̷ȻͬČW(xu)cͬôڽ̌W(xu)о͑(yng)òͬĽ҂ķ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)˼룬Դڿӵʩ

    Sĸ룬ƽľӢ󱊻M(jn)D(zhun)׃ߵԺУҎ(gu)ģȵt(y)ԺУУW(xu)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)A(ch)͌W(xu)(x)RW(xu)䌣I(y)c(sh)y(tng)Ӌ֪RҪͬW(xu)(x)Ŀ(bio)͑B(ti)ȲMͬ@ʹôW(xu)ԓn ̵M(jn)һķֻ;ͬrڲͬW(xu)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)A(ch)͌(sh)W(xu)dȤۺҲMͬ(sh)W(xu)W(xu)(x)ҕ̶ȺͶкܴeLڵĽ̌W(xu)`҂̵w޵ný̌W(xu)rg(ni)Mܵ؝MӴΌW(xu)W(xu)(x)ҪMI(y)m(x)ňW(xu)(x)ǰ£̶ȵ{(dio)ӌW(xu)ČW(xu)(x)eOз֌Ӵν̌W(xu)ߔ(sh)W(xu)̌W(xu)|(zh)[12]

    1 Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)оı

    1995ҽίо21o(j)ǔ(sh)W(xu)I(y)(sh)W(xu)n̽̌W(xu)(ni)cnwϵĸԁڔ(sh)W(xu)ڴW(xu)Б(yng)еã(ni)(sh)W(xu)uJ(rn)R҇ߵԺУҎ(gu)ģˮƽI(y)O(sh)؅^(q)YԴ(yu)Ӷȥh(yun)S҇ߵȽ󱊻څݵIJӿ@Щൽ21o(j)͹@֌Ӵν̌W(xu)ȻǴW(xu)(sh)W(xu)̌W(xu)Ҏ(gu)@Ҳ҂M(jn)дW(xu)(sh)W(xu)֌Ӵν̌W(xu)оrһl(f)cУڸՓc(sh)y(tng)ӋĽ̌W(xu)`֌Ӵν̌W(xu)ԭеĎY͌W(xu)ˮƽėl£ͨ^֌Ӵν̌W(xu)֝MI(y)ˮƽͬӴΌW(xu)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)|(zh)Ҫ޶ȵھ?q)Wĝܣ(do)W(xu)l(f)]䃞(yu)ʹÿW(xu)ܫ@ĸʽy(tng)Ӌ֪Rͬr܉֌F(xin)W(xu)УĽܺͷ(w)_(d)̕˵ĺCy(tng)һ[3]

    2 Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)п]Ć}

    Уһt(y)W(xu)ԺУڵĸʽy(tng)Ӌ̌W(xu)ȡһСRߡĽ̌W(xu)y(tng)һ̌W(xu)V̌W(xu)ʩӋ̌W(xu)Ҫ󣬲δᘌ(sh)W(xu)A(ch)IJͬȡͬ@ɻA(ch)õČW(xu)ԡA(ch)ČW(xu)ԡn̽Y(ji)δ_(d)Ľ̌W(xu)Ч

    Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋЄeW(xu)ƣՓԺ͑(yng)Զ܏(qing)@͛Q˽̎ڽ̌W(xu)еąc͌W(xu)W(xu)(x)ز١ný̌W(xu)һҪԌW(xu)wԌW(xu)ģһҪl(f)]̎(do)eOM(do)W(xu)M(jn)W(xu)õ،W(xu)(x)

    ߵȽд󱊻ӻ|(zh)v(yng)ԓǂԻġ|(zh)c֮һҪȫwW(xu)ھÿW(xu)ĝl(f)]ÿW(xu)ĂLȫwW(xu)|(zh)[4]ڔU(ku)|(zh)½څݣʹУУW(xu)zͥW(xu)Уh(hun)صӰˮƽӴβҲ@ЌӴ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)tJ(rn)W(xu)Ăwڽ̌W(xu)^ᘌͬӴΌW(xu)IJͬͬĔ(sh)W(xu)A(ch)͌W(xu)(x)ԼͬI(y)O(sh)ӋͬӴεĽ̌W(xu)Ŀ(bio)(j)ͬĽ̌W(xu)(ni)ݣ\òͬĽ̌W(xu)ͽ̌W(xu)ֶĶʹW(xu)ԼԭлA(ch)M(jn)к،W(xu)(x)ڻA(ch)֪R͑(yng)õְl(f)չȺ_(d)̌W(xu)VҪ[5]

    3 Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)ģʽČʩ

    3.1 Ӵ΄

    3.1.1 I(y)ͬM(jn)Є (j)I(y)ʽy(tng)Ӌ֪RIJͬҪòͬĽ̌W(xu)V_ͬeW(xu)յ֪RcĿǰ҂挦t(y)W(xu)̌I(y)_O(sh)Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ̲IJͬ(j)W(xu)ġʽy(tng)Ӌ̡̳ڽ̌W(xu)^"(qing)Փӌm(dng)(yng)"Ľ̌W(xu)ָ(do)˼룬B(yng)W(xu)SC(j)˼S߽y(tng)ӋB(yng)QһЩ漰֪Rt(y)W(xu)SC(j)ģʹûA(ch);ˎW(xu)c\g(sh)I(y)_O(sh)Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ̲IJõڶ܊t(y)W(xu)ġt(y)ˎ(sh)y(tng)Ӌ̌W(xu)Փӌ(qing){(dio)(yng)áĽ̌W(xu)ָ(do)˼ԓI(y)Ľ̌W(xu)мӏ(qing)˽y(tng)Ӌ֪RČW(xu)(x)ڽy(tng)Ӌvͨ^̌W(xu)ʹW(xu)^(qing)SC(j)(sh)(j)͑(yng)ýy(tng)Ӌܛ;挦Rt(y)W(xu)A(y)t(y)W(xu)t(y)W(xu)zt(y)W(xu)Ӱ񡢸ԭt(y)W(xu)t(y)W(xu)ȌI(y)҂_O(sh)܊t(y)W(xu)y(tng)ӋW(xu)̲Уy(tng)ӋW(xu)̌W(xu)^Џ(qing){(dio)y(tng)ӋġmԡҪW(xu)܊l(wi)y(tng)ӋW(xu)P(gun)(ni)t(y)W(xu)y(tng)ӋW(xu)еҪ~_^(q)Y;挦I(y)_O(sh)Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋȤζՓxnּ׌t(y)W(xu)˽ՓA(ch)֪RԼy(tng)Ӌm(x)n̴ûA(ch)

    3.1.2 (j)W(xu)Ĕ(sh)W(xu)A(ch)M(jn)Є ڸՓc(sh)y(tng)ӋČW(xu)(x)cߵȔ(sh)W(xu)֪Rճ̶@P(gun)ϵ҂ڽ̌W(xu)^и(j)ߵȔ(sh)W(xu)ijɿ̶ȌͬһI(y)W(xu)֞A,B,CӴĿǰͬһI(y)n̰rҔ(sh)Լ̎˔(sh)ȗl҂ֻҪ̎ͬһν̌W(xu)вȡ(yng)ĸNʩn(ni)ݵ½Mnʽ϶¹

    AӴΣW(xu)W(xu)(x)ڊ^ϲg(sh)W(xu)(sh)W(xu)A(ch)̺ܸ̾ۄXڄԌW(xu)(qing)Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋһTҪW(xu)nҼs(qing)ɿ(yu)

    BӴΣW(xu)^(sh)W(xu)o^ϲgϲg俴һTҪҌW(xu)ֻҪ˵ńӌW(xu)(x)(sh)W(xu)A(ch)֪Rɿе

    CӴΣW(xu)ͨF(xin)ϲg(sh)W(xu)Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋW(xu)(x)IJ(sh)W(xu)A(ch)֪R߉݋˼S^W(xu)(x)oXW(xu)(x)ɿ

    3.2 ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)

    3.2.1 ̌W(xu)^ (j)̌W(xu)ӴƶЌеĽ̌W(xu)V(yn)ս̌W(xu)Vƶ̌W(xu)Ӌxý̲ġʩ֌Ӵο(j)֌Ӵν̌W(xu)VU(ku)̌W(xu)(ni)ݣ߽̌W(xu)|(zh)ͬrʽy(tng)ӋṉMͬĕrgn@ʹn̎܉n󼰕rM(jn)д̌W(xu)гF(xin)Ć}ԱγõL(fng)(x)T

    ߌW(xu)ČW(xu)(x)dȤڽ̌W(xu)(ni)Ҫֱ^ӣMĽBČHͷ'H(yng)

    AӴΣsռ?c)˔?sh)15%(j)ӴΌW(xu)cɱƽ̌W(xu)ĻA(ch)ijЩ(sh)W(xu)(ni)ʹW(xu)ܸոcy(tng)ӋՓ֪RB(yng)(sh)˼S߉݋(j)֪ͬRcH}(do)W(xu)˼_(d)֪R(yng)õչ

    BӴΣsռ?c)˔?sh)75%ᘌԓW(xu)̎cný̌W(xu)|(zh)׌W(xu)ιn̘(bio)(zhn)Ҫյ֪R

    CӴΣsռ?c)˔?sh)10%(jng)oϽ̌W(xu)΄(w)ČW(xu)ný̌W(xu)I(y)҂o(do)̎y(tng)һM(jn)(x)}vuȡnɡW(wng)ϴY(ji)ϵķrQW(xu)ڌW(xu)(x)ϵy

    ÿnI(y)׌W(xu)ɣ_(d)얹̺I(y)(ni)ݣһǻA(ch)(CӴ)Ҫnj⡢\;ǾC(BӴ)A(ch);CI(y);(AӴ)ҪCԾ(x)͌H(yng)Æ}ĽQ

    3.2.2 ʽ ڌW(xu)֞3ͬӴ_(d)̶ھ(yu)еĄ҂ԓn̵ijɿ(gu)M(jn)иĸоɿռ70%30%ƽrɿƽrɿɽ̎(j)I(y)ɡnûش}r

    3.3 ìF(xin)Ϣg(sh)֌Ӵν̌W(xu)

    SF(xin)Ϣg(sh)İl(f)չW(wng)j(lu)ѳɞF(xin)̌W(xu)һNֶΡnr(sh)ܶW(xu)Mnc̎挦潻ϣnc̎ĻԵõW(xu)(x)ϵĎ҂挦֌Ӵν̌W(xu)M(jn)o

    3.3.1 _O(sh)I(y)վ cW(xu)pĘõ׌̎cW(xu)M(jn)Мͨ҂2002У@W(wng)_O(sh)˔(sh)W(xu)̌W(xu)W(wng)վՓc(sh)y(tng)Ӌn̵DƬ•ҕlYW(xu)W(xu)(x)I(y)֪Rͽģṩƽ_\еn̾ςFTPԼW(wng)վĽ̌W(xu)^(q)W(xu)W(xu)(x)ԽW(xu)W(xu)(x)ķώrՌW(xu)ČW(xu)(x)rͬrI(y)ܛMatlab7.0Matlab2007Lingo8.0Lindo6.0SPSS13.0, ȫM̌W(xu)ҪЧ@W(xu)ͨ^W(wng)վ˽ԓTn̵P(gun)rn̎rn̘(bio)(zhn)̌W(xu)ʩӋͬrP(gun)ʽy(tng)Ӌ(yng)÷ľW(wng)朽W(xu)W(xu)(x)ԓTn̴

    3.3.2 ԇ} 鿼W(xu)ԓn̵ČW(xu)(x)r⡢đ(yng)ó̶_(d)Kոcy(tng)ӋP(gun)֪RĿģ҂|(zh)^ߵԇ}ͨ^Ľ̌W(xu)`{(dio)ѽ(jng)܉M̿xĿԇģʽԇ}еԇ}(sh)(nW(xu)r50W(xu)rԇ}캬1500})}Ͷ(xxД})ԇ}o܇@֪Rcչ_yϵ(sh)0.10.9֞9ȼᘌͬӴεČW(xu)TM(jn)пԇ}}Ɍؓ(f)؟(z);So(h)ԇ}O(sh)ñCܿ^ȫؿW(xu)TČW(xu)(x)ЧÿοԇԇM(jn)yŶȵȷͨ^οԇɿY(ji)n̿ԇЧŶ^

    3.3.3 O(sh)W(wng)j(lu)n ˸õ؎W(xu)W(xu)(x)҂2008꽨O(sh)Փc(sh)y(tng)ӋW(wng)j(lu)nҪɴKnúͽ̌W(xu)Mnаýwnӽ̰W(wng)j(lu)̲ҕl;̌W(xu)MаW(wng)I(y)̎W(xu)ͨ^нMώĵM(jn)(x)ͨ^W(wng)j(lu)n̿׌AW(xu)W(xu)øBW(xu)ջA(ch)֪Rnϲܼr֪RCW(xu)ٴΌW(xu)(x)ջ(ni)

    4 Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)ur

    ͨ^5Ľ̌W(xu)`"ԌW(xu)w̎(do)֪R(yng)ÞĿ"Ľ̌W(xu)˼УڱՓc(sh)y(tng)Ӌnʩз֌Ӵν̌W(xu)ѽ(jng)յ^õЧڷ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)(do)̎|(zh)Ҳõߣͬһ̌W(xu)η3ӴΣͬӴΌW(xu)ˮƽ^@̎v(zhn)ҪᘌθӴƶnă(ni)`׃Ľ̌W(xu)ʽM(jn)֪Rv;ͨ^֌Ӵν̌W(xu)wČW(xu)ڽ̎ąf(xi)c£W(xu)ČW(xu)(x)õ_l(f)ͬӴΌW(xu)@ȡ֪R͑(yng)֪Rõ@(sh)˼S߉݋ƌ(do)õl(f)չ3УM113(337)cȫW(xu)(sh)W(xu)ģِ@ȫһȪ13Ȫ12;ؑcһȪ47Ȫ16헵ă(yu)ɿλؑcиУǰõȫMίؑcнίؑcِ^(q)͌W(xu)УI(lng)(do)ĸ߶ȿ϶

    ҂J(rn)ͨ^Փc(sh)y(tng)Ӌn̷֌Ӵν̌W(xu)M(jn)ڌW(xu)Իİl(f)չһNֵƏVĽ̌W(xu)ģʽҲһNm(yng)ĸcM(jn)e҂ӏ(qing)W(xu)(sh)W(xu)nȺwO(sh)Ҏ(gu)˷eO̽Ŭȫ߸ʽy(tng)ӋԼW(xu)(sh)W(xu)Ľ̌W(xu)|(zh)ṩ˿ƌW(xu)(j)춨ˈԌĻA(ch)

    īI(xin)

    1 ߵȌW(xu)УƔ(sh)W(xu)nָ(do)ίT(ƽM).P(gun)ڹƔ(sh)W(xu)ϵn̽̌W(xu)ĸĽh(sh)W(xu)c̲о.ߵȽ1995.

    2 裬.֌ӴB(yng):c`.|о,2004,5:4850.

    3 ˹,_t.УĻ|(zh)֌M(jn)ģʽ˼c`.У̽,2004,3:7880.

    4 .У(sh)W(xu)֌Ӵν̌W(xu)оc`.H,2005,3:315318.

    5 Ƽ.cy(tng)Ӌ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)Č`cJ(rn)R. http://jpkc.njust.edu.cn/ gltj/files

    t(y)W(xu)ԺՓc(sh)y(tng)Ӌ֌Ӵν̌W(xu)Č`cJ(rn)ՓġP(gun)£

    1.̌W(xu)ģʽ̽c`Փ

    2.ܛ_l(f)c`n̽̌W(xu)(ni)čW(xu)Փ

    3.C˼cný̌W(xu)`Փ

    4.šӋՓ̌W(xu)c`̌W(xu)ЧY(ji)ϳ̽Փ

    5.t(y)(ni)ƌW(xu)̌W(xu)(chung)c`̽Փ

    6.\ՓͨУpŽW(xu)Č`c˼Փ

    7.̹̌W(xu)Փc`ĽY(ji)Փ

    8.Vš㕽ӽ̌W(xu)`c˼Փ